by Mikala Grubb (Haldor Topsoe) The global transition to sustainably produced fuels offers refiners, biorefiners, and investors a once-in-a-generation-sized opportunity. The key to taking it will be advanced feedstocks, as detailed in this column which uncovers how to make the most of the enormous potential.
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Add to this the fact that air, ship, and heavy road transportation will keep relying on liquid fuels, supporting a growing biofuel market for decades ahead, while car manufacturers are looking to shift to electrical engines.
Today, around 2 million BPD of biofuels are produced, a figure projected to rise to up to 9 million BPD in 2040 according to IRENA’s 2019 Remap case.
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Already, the global biofuels market is tense because of steadily growing demand and climbing prices. This development is projected to further intensify in the coming years for both first-generation feedstocks like rapeseed oils or soybean oil and second-generation feedstocks such as waste oils, animal fats, crude tall oil, or distillers corn oil.
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The availability of second-generation feedstock is very limited, totaling just around one-fourth of first-generation feedstock amounts. For instance, used cooking oils and animal fats merely constitute 40 million metric tons of waste and residue lipids. Moreover, second-generation feedstocks are in high demand, raising concerns about future availability and making it difficult to get supply agreements in place.
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Cover crops (winter crops/rotational crops) also show very high potential and even present refiners with an easier monetization route as they resemble 1st generation feedstocks in value chain terms.
Right now, the only genuinely credible answer is turning to new types of feedstocks, namely solid wastes such as agricultural residue, forestry residue, plastic waste, organic fraction of municipal solid waste, or sewage sludge.
Together with recycled carbon feedstocks such as plastic waste or end-of-life tires, these solid feedstocks constitute the third generation of biofuel feedstocks. These advanced feedstocks are available in far larger quantities than any traditional feedstocks, and they will power the world of biofuel production into the future.
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The challenge with advanced feedstocks
To succeed with third-generation feedstocks will require adapting novel solutions and strategies. While the potential is enormous, significant challenges hover for refiners looking to turn to solid feedstocks.
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First of all, building and operating advanced feedstock units have a cost, of course, especially for first movers, and the bankability aspects of such projects will often look daunting.
Complex questions regarding legislation, certification, feedstocks, and infrastructure also linger and require answers from politicians, investors, businesses, and operators alike.
Furthermore, refiners are looking into a whole new supply chain where new alliances need to be crafted: securing access to third-generation feedstock will probably take investments in companies upstream, for instance, in the forest industry.
The good news is, there are already several technological solutions in place that can help refiners process several different solid feedstocks. The solutions are ready.
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Step one in any advanced feedstock operation is producing biocrude (or bio-oil) from solid feedstock.
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Production of biocrudes from solid waste is only one part of the equation to solve, as biocrudes must be upgraded before being used as fuels. In this respect, our research shows that hydroprocessing is the preferable solution because of the low yield loss as well as the process flexibility to meet varying specifications depending on the product.
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At Topsoe, we have been working on upgrading biocrudes and bio-oils for more than 10 years through various collaborations. Our whitepaper, Fueling the future, examines hydroprocessing strategies for pyrolysis oils. READ MORE